The potential impact of voter ID requirements and provisional voting tomorrow

Much has been made of the potential impact of substantial turnout by first time voters throughout the nation. It is expected these voters will overwhelmingly support Barack Obama (and will consist of a large number of young and African American voters.) While I am excited by Obama's impact in engaging these historically hard to reach demographics, I am also concerned that many of these voters will show up for the first time only to find that they do not have the proper identification to receive a ballot and instead will be issued provisional ballots. A large number of provisional ballots are never counted, and though I do not have any conclusive proof, I wonder if that experience discourages new voters from voting again.

To fully understand the impact of voter ID requirements and provisional ballots, we must start with HAVA (or the Help Americans Vote Act of 2002). In the 2000 election, over-aggressive culling of voter registration roles (think: the removal of anyone who shared a name with a felon in FL) resulted in the disenfranchisement of many voters who felt they had registered correctly. HAVA was created to set forth minimum federal guidelines for all states to follow to avoid many of the mishaps of 2000. HAVA requires (among other things) that:

(1)any voter who registers to vote by mail and has not previously voted in a Federal election show current and valid photo identification or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the name and address of the voter. Voters who submit any of these forms of identification during registration are exempt from this rule.
(2) Information about provisional ballots to be displayed at every polling place.
(3) Election judges must inform a voter if he/she has the option of casting a provisional ballot.
(4) Election judges must issue a provisional ballot to ANY VOTER who requests one.
(5) States must establish a free access system (such as a toll-free telephone number or an Internet website) that any individual who casts a provisional ballot may access to discover whether the vote of that individual was counted, and, if the vote was not counted, the reason that the vote was not counted
(6) A single, computerized, uniform state-wide voter registration list

Note: Number 6 is important because most challenged voters have the option on a federal only ballot. If you are shown anywhere on the state-wide list, you may choose a federal only ballot. (usually just President and Senate -- House if you live in a state with only one rep.)

Number 1 is important because most voters registered through GOTV campaigns will be subject to this requirement.

So what's the big deal? You still get to vote, right? Well... kind of. You do get a ballot, and you get to fill it out, but that in no way means it will be counted. Provisional voting occurs when there is some doubt about a voter’s eligibility. The voter is given a provisional ballot which is counted only if eligibility is later verified by an authorized election official. And most of the time, the burden of proof is on you. Sometimes, it is a totally whacked out archaic system like Missouri, but I'll get to that later.

Who receives a provisional ballot? Anyone can ask for a provisional ballot, but there in certain states, election judges are also required to give you a provisional ballot (even if you don't think to ask for one) if you fir one of the following categories:
(1) First time voters who cannot provide identification.
(2) Voters who have had their vote challenged at the poll.
(3)Voters who do not have proper identification and registered by mail.

Further complicating matters is the fact that HAVA just requires states to ask for some form of ID. It does not specify what can and cannot be required. The more stringent the standards, the greater likelihood voters will be required to vote provisionally.

I took a look at some of the key states this year. Any state not currently considered definitively blue or red is included. For each, I have provided the basic ID requirements as well as the procedure followed if these requirements are not met. [There are a few states that I have not listed any additional info for. As far as I can tell these states have no special requirements outside of those in HAVA but as I learn more I will update. esp since one is Pennsylvania]

Arizona
Requirement: Photo ID with name/address OR two forms of ID with name/address
If ID requirements are not met → Provisional Ballot

Arkansas
Requirement: One form of ID, photo not required
If ID requirements are not met → Noted on Ballot

Colorado
Requirement: One form of ID, photo not required
If ID requirements are not met → Provisional Ballot

Florida
Requirement: Photo ID with signature
If ID requirements are not met → Signed Affadativ required to vote

Georgia
Requirement: Government Photo ID
If ID requirements are not met → Provisional Ballot

Indiana
Requirement: Government Photo ID
If ID requirements are not met → Provisional Ballot

Missouri
Requirement: One form of ID, photo not required
If ID requirements are not met → If an individual does not possess any of these forms of identification, s/he may still cast a ballot if two supervising election judges, one from each major political party, attest they know the person.

New Mexico
Requirement:Voter ID law relaxed in 2008: New Mexico now allows a voter to satisfy the ID requirement by stating his name, address as registered and year of birth
If ID requirements are not met →

North Carolina
Requirement:
If ID requirements are not met →

North Dakota
Requirement: One form of identification, photo not required
If ID requirements are not met → If an individual offering to vote fails or refuses to show an appropriate form of identification, the individual may be allowed to vote without being challenged if the individual provides to the election board the individual's date of birth and if a member of the election board or a clerk knows the individual and can personally vouch that the individual is a qualified elector of the precinct. Otherwise, the individual may vote as a challenged voter by executing an affidavit that the challenged individual is a legally qualified elector of the precinct.

Ohio
One form of identification, photo not required
If ID requirements are not met → Provisional

Pennsylvania
Requirement:
If ID requirements are not met →

South Dakota
Requirement: Government Photo ID
If ID requirements are not met → signed affadativ required to vote

Virginia
Requirement: Government ID
If ID requirements are not met → signed affadativ required to vote

West Virginia
Requirement:
If ID requirements are not met →


So, it varies pretty widely, in North Dakota, you bring in a utility bill you stole from someone's mailbox and vote for them no problem, BUT if you forget your mail and you know your birthday but not an election judge you're screwed. I am guessing this is because there are like 15 people in ND and they all know each other. In Missouri, you need TWO people to vouch for you, one from each party. Again, the ID requirements are pretty lenient so if you have a Driver's License or State ID with your current address, you are fine, and for most people, this is not a problem. But who is the most likely to have a state issued ID without their current address? Young voters and the urban poor, the same two populations we hope to see a surge of tomorrow.

If that doesn't convince you, here are the numbers of provisional votes cast and counted in 2004.






















Much of the discrepancy between # of votes cast and counted is explained by differences in how a provisional vote is deemed valid. All HAVA requires is that ballots cast in the correct jurisdiction be counted. Of course, jurisdiction can mean different things.
(1) In 31 states and D.C., provisional ballots are disqualified if they are cast outside of their correct precinct.
(2) In 14 states, provisional ballots may be counted if cast outside the individual’s home precinct.
(3) 3 states, Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, have same day registration and are exempt.
(4) North Dakota has no registration requirements. -- Again, because there are 10 people there.
























I just realized it is very hard to read those pictures and to see whether or not they mean much. To do a real analysis, I would need to know the following

1. How many first time voters are expected in each of the close and key races?
2. What % will those voters make of the total vote?
3. On average, what % of first time voter will be given provisional ballots?
4. How close can we reasonably expect each race to be?

Just by looking at the numbers, my guess is in most states Obama's lead should be great enough that he can win without provisional votes even being counted. If we see a lot of tightening, however, it could make be significant. In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes. In the same year, 158,642 provisional ballots were case in OH of which 123,548 provisional votes were counted. Those ballots were most likely not responsible for the win, but they do fall within the margin of victory. With states like SD (who only accepted 12% of provisional ballots in 2004), VA (17%), IN (15%), GA (30%), IN (40%), FL (36%) playing a major role in this election,large numbers of new voters, and likely large amounts of voter error, provisional ballots could play a larger role than we expect.

That said, let's just hope for a swift and clean Obama landslide.